Predicting the Future of AI

In science fiction, predictions of a future that did not occur were made by authors such as Jules Verne, H.G. Wells, Robert Heinlein, Ray Bradbury, Arthur C Clark, and Isaac Asimov. No one has traveled to the center of the earth, and considering the heat and pressure that exist there, no one probably ever will. Neither have we seen advancements to colonizing Mars or creating androids indistinguishable from humans. Their imaginative fiction is still interesting to read, even if it did not follow the path of our own development.

Hardcore science fiction readers may mourn the loss of science fiction writers who keen insights into possible futures. Ray Bradbury with his prescience about technology predicted wall size TV’s in a kind of theater room and “clam shells” that a people stuck in their ears to replace the world’s noise with music in Fahrenheit 451. However, the past writers were taking pot shots when guessing about power of new technology such as computers.

We have yet to see humans on another planet or a computer with truly independent thought processes, even though Arthur C. Clarke wrote stories making these events seem plausible. Tales of space travel to distant solar systems (or even galaxies) are entertaining. However, the amount of time it takes for light from these places to grace our skies is mind boggling. Would humans ever be able to reach them? Therefore, travel in outer space is being usurped by journeys into inner space. The new frontiers in science-fiction literature are virtual reality (VR) and artificial intelligence (AI).

Travel in outer space is being usurped by journeys into inner space.

The VR and AI that exist today are used in very prosaic ways, such as recalling steps for a mechanic, teaching your phone to recognize your voice or completing the drudgery of finding research. These are not exactly thrilling plot lines. Jaron Lanier, one of the founders of virtual reality, argues that computers will never become masters of matter and life. As humans we don’t have the intelligence to produce ones that run programs that are not cumbersome and error-prone, because we are error-prone. Science fiction authors are again taking potshots at predicting the future by creating virtual reality and artificial intelligence that is sophisticated beyond human cunning.

The real threat, according to Jaron Lanier, is the belief that our collective wisdom can spawn ideas superior to that of a few individual humans. The “hive mind” relieves individuals of responsibility for actions. A pack of anonymous people online can turn into a vicious mob. So, if an author is looking for a new twist on the use of artificial intelligence in fiction, one only has to look as far as the errors made by masses in the name of science in the past. It may not be the dangerous self-growth of artificial intelligence that drives the plot towards the crises, but how humans use it in their very fallible and irresponsible ways.

Photo by K.N. Listman

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